تحلیل جامعه‌شناختی رابطه شاخص‌های اقتصادی ـ اجتماعی و نرخ مرگ و میر در ایران (در دوره 1398-1370)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه جامعه‌شناسی دانشگاه یاسوج، یاسوج، ایران

2 استادیار گروه جامعه‌شناسی دانشگاه یاسوج، یاسوج، ایران

3 دانشجوی دکتری جامعه‌شناسی دانشگاه یاسوج، یاسوج، ایران

چکیده

نرخ مرگ و میر در ایران در دهه‌های اخیر با نوسانات زیادی همراه بوده است. اگر چه، این موضوع به دلیل اهمیت آن به‌طور گسترده مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است اما به ندرت بر حسب شاخص‌های کلان و در دوره‌های طولانی طولانی‌مدت به آن پرداخته شده است. پژوهش حاضر تلاش کرده است رابطه شاخص‌های اقتصادی ـ اجتماعی سرانه تولید ناخالص داخلی، مشارکت زنان در نیروی کار، تورم، بیکاری و میزان باسوادی را با نرخ مرگ و میر در دوره 1398-1370 مورد بررسی قرار دهد. این پژوهش از نوع کمی ‌طولی است که به روش سری زمانی انجام شده است. جهت بررسی رابطه کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت متغیرهای تحقیق، از الگوی خود رگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی در نرم افزار مایکروفیت استفاده شده است. بر اساس یافته‌های تحقیق، بین تحصیلات زنان و نرخ مرگ و میر (3/4 - :t-ratio، 000/0:pro) رابطه منفی و معنادار وجود دارد. بین بیکاری (5/2 t-ratio:، 023/0:pro) و مشارکت زنان در نیروی کار (7/8 t-ratio:، 000/0:pro) با مرگ و میر رابطه مثبت و معنادار وجود دارد و بین تولید ناخالص داخلی (7/1 t-ratio:، 102/0:pro) و تورم (7/1- :t-ratio، 098/0:pro) با نرخ مرگ و میر رابطه معناداری وجود ندارد. با استناد به یافته‌های تحقیق، نتیجه‌گیری می‌شود که مرگ و میر در ایران متأثر از تحصیلات زنان، بیکاری، و مشارکت زنان در نیروی کار به‌عنوان شاخص‌های کلان اقتصادی ـ اجتماعی، است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Sociological Analysis of the Relationship between Socio-Economic Indicators and Death Rate in Iran During 1991-2019

نویسندگان [English]

  • Siroos Ahmadi 1
  • Arman Heydari 2
  • Zahra Shakeri 3
1 Professor, Department of Sociology, University of Yasouj, Yasouj, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Sociology, University of Yasouj, Yasouj, Iran
3 PhD student in sociology, University of Yasouj, Yasouj, Iran
چکیده [English]

The death rate in Iran has experienced different fluctuations in recent decades. Although, this issue has been widely studied due to its importance, it has rarely been paid attention from a macro and long-term perspective. Therefore, this research has tried to investigate the relationship between socio-economic indicators including; GDP per capita, women's participation in the labor force, inflation and unemployment and literacy rate with the death rate in the period of 1991-2019. This research is a longitudinal quantitative type that was conducted using the time-series method. In order to investigate the short-term and long-term relationship of the research variables, the autoregressive model was used in microfit software. Based on the findings of the research, with the improvement of the literacy (t-ratio:-4.3, pro:.000), the death rate has decreased. In addition, there is a positive and significant relationship between women’s participation in the labor force (t-ratio:8.7, pro:.000) and unemployment (t-ratio:2.5, pro:.023) with death rate, and finally, there is no significant relationship between GDP per capita (t-ratio:1.7, pro:.102) and inflation (t-ratio:-1.7, pro:.098) with death rate. Based on the findings of the research, it is concluded that the death rate in Iran is affected by some macro socio-economic indicators.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Mortality
  • GDP Per Capita
  • Women’s Participation in Labor Force
  • Unemployment
  • Inflation
  • Literacy
Ahmadi, H., Gholamiabiz, M. (2008). “Investigating socio-economic factors affecting addiction (case study: addicts of Pirbanan camp in Shiraz)”, Addiction Research Quarterly, 2(5): 105-85.
Ahmadi, S. (2022). “Sociological analysis of the relationship between economic indicators and murder in Iran in the period 1995-2018”, Journal of Applied Sociology, 33(87): 83-100. (Persian).
Akbari, H., Ahmadi, H. (2011). “Sociological investigation of the phenomenon of drug trafficking by women in Zanjan city”, Social Security Studies Quarterly, 3(32), 113-132. (Persian).
Amani, F. (2010). “Changes in major causes of death in Iran during the years 1971-2009”, Scientific journal of Gorgan University of Medical Sciences. Vol. 12, No. 4. pp.: 85-90. (Persian).
Andzenge, D. T. S. (1991). Crime and development: A comparative analysis. PHD dissertation, Michigan: Western Michigan University. ‏
Babakhani, M., Raghofer, H. (2009). “The relationship between income inequality and health in Iran during the years 1976-2006”, Health Management, 12, pp. 16-9. (Persian).
Basu, M. (1991). “Women’s economic role and child survival: The case of India”, Health Transition Review, 1,1:83-103.
Bayati, P. (2010). “Socio-cultural background effective on addiction to psychotropic substances”, Addiction Research Quarterly, 4(14): 7-15. (Persian).
Birjandi Fakhrabadi, M. Larijani, M. Shabiri, M. (2017). “Identifying organizational factors influencing entrepreneurship education for non-governmental organizations active in the field of addiction and environment”, Addiction Research Quarterly, 12(45): 296-281. (Persian).
Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., Fink, G., and Finlay, J. E. (2009). “Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend”, Journal of Economic Growth, 14(2), 79-101.
Brenner, M. (1971). “Economic changes and heart disease mortality”, American Journal of Public Health, 61(3):606–611.
Chapman, J. I. (1976). “An economic model of crime and police: Some empirical results”, Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 13: 48- 63.
Coleman, R. Rainwater, L. (1978). Social standing in America. New York: Basic Books.
Cumming, S. (2020). Sociology unlocked. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Davis, K. (1963). “The theory of change and response in modern demographic history”, Population Index, 29: 345–366.
Davis, M. (2006). Will our final years be golden? Mortality by Alzheimer’s disease in the United States. Ph.D. thesis. Texas: A & M University.
Deaton, A., Paxson, C. (2001). Mortality, income, and income inequality over time in Britain and the United States, University of Chicago. NBER Working Paper 8534.
Demeny, P. (2003). Population policy. In: Demeny, P & McNichol, G (Eds.). Encyclopedia of Population. New York: Macmillan.
Ehrlich, I. (1973). “Participation in illegal activities: A theoretical and empirical investigation”, Journal of Political Economy, 31(3), 521-569.
Farajzadeh, M. They have, M. (2008). “Analysis of the effect of air temperature on mortality in Tehran”, Hakim magazine, (3) 11, 27-34. (Persian).
Felice, E. (2016). “GDP and life expectancy in Italy and Spain over the long run: A time-series approach”, Germany: Demographic Research, 35: 813-866.
Fingerhut, L. (2003). Accidents, in: Demeny, P & McNichol, G. (eds.), Encyclopedia of Population. New York: Macmillan.
Frank, J. D., Frank, J. B. (1991). Persuasion and Healing: A Comparative Study of Psychotherapy. Washington: Hopkins University Press.
Fukuda, P. S., Kumar, A. (2004). Readings in human development: concepts, measures and policies for a development paradigm. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Grossbard, S. (2010). “Whose time? Who saves? Introduction to a special issue on couples’ savings, Time use and children”, Review of Economics of the Household, 8(3):289–96.
Hobcraft, J., McDonald, J., Rutstein, S. (1984). “Socio-economic factors in infant and child mortality: a cross national comparison”, Population Studies, 38:193-223.
Homaie Rad, E., Samadi, A. H., Bayazidi, Y., Hayati, R. (2013). “Comparing the socioeconomic determinants of infant mortality rate in Iran and MENA countries”, Journal of Economic Modelling Research. 12: 135-51.
Kendall, D. (2011). Sociology in our times, the essentials. Singapore: Wadsworth Cengage Learning.
Lundquist, J. H., Anderton, D. L., Yaukey, D. (2015). Demography: The study of human population. Illinois: Waveland Press.
Macionis, J. (2017). Sociology. New York: Cengage Publication.
Mahmoudian, H., Sharfi, M. R., Khoshbein, S., Ahmadi, A. (2007). Family knowledge. Tehran: Publications of Organization for the Study and Compilation of Humanities Books. (Persian).
McInerney, M. and J.M. Mellor. (2012). “Recessions and seniors’ health; Health behaviors and healthcare use: Analysis of the Medicare current beneficiary survey”, Journal of Health Economics, 31(5): 744-751.
Monsef, M. Shahid Mohammadi Mehrjardi, A. (2017). “Investigating the impact of economic factors on the life expectancy of the countries of the world during the years 2002-2010”, Monitoring Journal, (5)16, 567-574. (Persian).
Murphy, M. (2017). The economization of life. Durham, NC: Duke University Press.
Naghavi, M. (2006). “Transition in health status in the Islamic Republic of Iran”, Iranian Journal of Epidemiology. 1&2: 45-57.
Nezamivand Chegini, B. (2013). “Factors affecting the participation of Tehran women in the workforce”, Welfare and Social Development Planning Quarterly, No. 15, pp. 2-44.
Nicholson, S. Simon, K. (2010). How did the recession affect health and related activities of Americans? Available at: https://thew.web. unc.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/ 5246/2013/09/simon. pdf.
Notestein, F. (1945). Population the long view. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Olshansky, S.  Antonucci, T., Linda F. Berkman, R. (2012). “Differences in life expectancy due to race and educational differences are widening and many May not catch up”, Health Affairs, 31(8):1803-1813.
Omran, A. (1971). “The epidemiological transition: A theory of the epidemiology of population change”, Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 49:509–538.
Panahi, H. and colleagues (2014). “Estimation of the long-term relationship between the mortality of children under one year old and the factors of poverty, urbanization and GDP per capita in Iran”, Monitoring Journal, 14(4), 399-410. (Persian).
Phillips, J., Land, K. C. (2012). “The Link between unemployment and crime rate fluctuations: An analysis at the county, state, and national levels”, Social Science Research, 41: 681-669.
Popkin, B. M., Adair, L. S., Ng, S. W. (2012). “Global nutrition transition and the pandemic of obesity in developing countries”, Nutrition Reviews, 70(1):3-21.
Poston, D. L., Lewinski, D. (2006). Fertility. In: B. Turner (ed.), the Cambridge Dictionary of Sociology, Cambridge University Press.
Poston, D., Leon, F. B (2017). Population and society, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Robin, J. (2003). Epidemiological transition. In: P. Demeny & G. McNichol (eds.), Encyclopedia of Population. New York: Macmillan Reference.
Rogers, R., Hackenberg, R. (1987). “Extending epidemiology transition theory: A new stage”, Social Biology, 34: 234–243.
Rogers, R.G., Crimmins, E.M. (2011). International handbook of adult mortality. New York: Springer.
Sadeghi, H., Shaghaghi, S. and Asgharpour, H. (2005). “Analysis of economic factors affecting crime in Iran”, Journal of Economic Research, (1) 68: 63-90. (Persian).
Schaefer, R. (2020). Sociology in modules. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
Shepard, J. M., Greene, R. W. (2002). Sociology and you. New York: McGraw Hill Education.
Spijker, J. J. A. (2014). Socioeconomic determinants of mortality in Europe: Validation of recent models using the latest available data and short-term forecasts. In: Anson, J., Luy, M (Eds.), Mortality in international perspective. New York: Springer.
Sullivan, D., Von Wachter, T. (2009). “Job displacement and mortality: An analysis using administrative data”, The Quarterly Journal of Economic.124(3): 1265-1306.
The Civil Registration (2016). Yearbook of demographic statistics of the country's civil registry. Tehran: Publications of the Civil Registration Organization of the country. (Persian).
Thompson, W. (1929). “Population”, American Journal of Sociology, 34: 959-975.
Todaro, M. (2014). Economic development in the third world. Translated by Gholam Ali Farjadi. Tehran: Kohsar Publications. (Persian).
Tulasidhar, V. (1993). Maternal education, female labor force participation and child mortality: evidence from the Indian census. National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, 18/2 Special Institutional Area, New Delhi, India.
Tushima, M. (2000). “Economic structure and crime: The case of Japan”, Journal of Socioeconomics, 25(4): 497-515.
Vallin, J.; Mesle, F. (2009). “The segmented trend line of highest life expectancies”, Population and Development Review, 35(1):159-187.
Weeks, J. R. (2021). Population: An introduction to concepts and issues. Singapore: Cengage Publication.
Wong, Y., Chim, R. (1995). “An economic analysis of the crime rate in England and Wales (1857-1892)”, Economic, 62: 235-247.
Yavari, M. Abdi, A. Mehrabi, Y. (2003). “Epidemiology of the causes of death and its changes in the years 1979 to 2001 in Iran”, Hakim magazine, (3)6, 7-14. (Persian).
Zimmer, Z. (2007). “Education of adult children and mortality of their elderly parents in Taiwan”, Demography, 44(2): 289–305.