تحلیل جامعه‌شناختی رابطه شاخص‌های اقتصادی ـ اجتماعی و نرخ مرگ و میر در ایران (در دوره 1398-1370)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه جامعه‌شناسی دانشگاه یاسوج، یاسوج، ایران

2 استادیار گروه جامعه‌شناسی دانشگاه یاسوج، یاسوج، ایران

3 دانشجوی دکتری جامعه‌شناسی دانشگاه یاسوج، یاسوج، ایران

10.22055/qjsd.2023.18640

چکیده

نرخ مرگ و میر در ایران در دهه‌های اخیر با نوسانات زیادی همراه بوده است. اگر چه، این موضوع به دلیل اهمیت آن به‌طور گسترده مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است اما به ندرت بر حسب شاخص‌های کلان و در دوره‌های طولانی طولانی‌مدت به آن پرداخته شده است. پژوهش حاضر تلاش کرده است رابطه شاخص‌های اقتصادی ـ اجتماعی سرانه تولید ناخالص داخلی، مشارکت زنان در نیروی کار، تورم، بیکاری و میزان باسوادی را با نرخ مرگ و میر در دوره 1398-1370 مورد بررسی قرار دهد. این پژوهش از نوع کمی ‌طولی است که به روش سری زمانی انجام شده است. جهت بررسی رابطه کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت متغیرهای تحقیق، از الگوی خود رگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی در نرم افزار مایکروفیت استفاده شده است. بر اساس یافته‌های تحقیق، بین تحصیلات زنان و نرخ مرگ و میر (3/4 - :t-ratio، 000/0:pro) رابطه منفی و معنادار وجود دارد. بین بیکاری (5/2 t-ratio:، 023/0:pro) و مشارکت زنان در نیروی کار (7/8 t-ratio:، 000/0:pro) با مرگ و میر رابطه مثبت و معنادار وجود دارد و بین تولید ناخالص داخلی (7/1 t-ratio:، 102/0:pro) و تورم (7/1- :t-ratio، 098/0:pro) با نرخ مرگ و میر رابطه معناداری وجود ندارد. با استناد به یافته‌های تحقیق، نتیجه‌گیری می‌شود که مرگ و میر در ایران متأثر از تحصیلات زنان، بیکاری، و مشارکت زنان در نیروی کار به‌عنوان شاخص‌های کلان اقتصادی ـ اجتماعی، است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Sociological Analysis of the Relationship between Socio-Economic Indicators and Death Rate in Iran During 1991-2019

نویسندگان [English]

  • Siroos Ahmadi 1
  • Arman Heydari 2
  • Zahra Shakeri 3
1 Professor, Department of Sociology, University of Yasouj, Yasouj, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Sociology, University of Yasouj, Yasouj, Iran
3 PhD student in sociology, University of Yasouj, Yasouj, Iran
چکیده [English]

The death rate in Iran has experienced different fluctuations in recent decades. Although, this issue has been widely studied due to its importance, it has rarely been paid attention from a macro and long-term perspective. Therefore, this research has tried to investigate the relationship between socio-economic indicators including; GDP per capita, women's participation in the labor force, inflation and unemployment and literacy rate with the death rate in the period of 1991-2019. This research is a longitudinal quantitative type that was conducted using the time-series method. In order to investigate the short-term and long-term relationship of the research variables, the autoregressive model was used in microfit software. Based on the findings of the research, with the improvement of the literacy (t-ratio:-4.3, pro:.000), the death rate has decreased. In addition, there is a positive and significant relationship between women’s participation in the labor force (t-ratio:8.7, pro:.000) and unemployment (t-ratio:2.5, pro:.023) with death rate, and finally, there is no significant relationship between GDP per capita (t-ratio:1.7, pro:.102) and inflation (t-ratio:-1.7, pro:.098) with death rate. Based on the findings of the research, it is concluded that the death rate in Iran is affected by some macro socio-economic indicators.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Mortality
  • GDP Per Capita
  • Women’s Participation in Labor Force
  • Unemployment
  • Inflation
  • Literacy
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